Recessions usually take place about every six to eight years. Since the “official” recession ended in 2009, the next recession should take place anytime between now and 2018. But one poll of economists suggests the next one will take place in three years time.
According to a Bloomberg survey of economists from Sept. 4 to Sept. 9, the next economic downturn will transpire in 2018. This means the current Federal Reserve-induced, artificial economic expansion will have a lifespan of just under a decade. If you can call it an expansion…
Economists noted that there’s a 10 percent chance a recession could occur within the next 12 months. Who knows if this will happen? Here’s what the news outlet writes about the current economic recovery:
“The current recovery has already beaten the postwar average of just under five years, mostly because improvement in the economy has been so slow. Payrolls only started to really pick up last year, and growth, while steady, hasn’t been anything to write home about. Economists expect the U.S. to expand at a 2.5 percent annualized rate this year, just a tick above last year and much slower compared with growth in other recoveries.”
Whatever the case, President Obama’s successor will have only a year to have some sort of a plan to combat his/her own financial crisis – in this case, it’s likely going to be Hillary Clinton who will have to fight a downturn.
The weak economy isn’t something that is just relegated to the United States. Growth all over the world, in both emerging and developed markets, is performing at a less-than-stellar rate. China, Brazil, South Africa and Russia are struggling, while developed economies aren’t putting strong enough numbers to keep the world from contracting.
It’s an excellent illustration to show that all of the money printing, artificially low interest rates and stimulus aren’t tools to give an economy a long-term jolt. All it does is lead to more debt (SEE: 5 random things for a Friday (China dumps U.S. Treasurys)) and malinvestment. It doesn’t matter, though. Central banks (SEE: Marc Faber says 21st century central banking has led to ‘no safe assets’) will continue to bring out the big guns and fire with even more money printing and low rates.
Indeed, if you thought the economic collapse of 2008 was bad, the next one will be devastating because the creation of debt and phony money has been immense.
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