Is 2016 the year the United States enters another recession? That’s the common perception of economists over the past year.
According to the various reports, the odds of a recession hitting the U.S., less than a decade since the last economic collapse, is growing, and Citi is the latest group to join the chorus.
Citi released its 2016 economic outlook Wednesday, which stated that there’s a 65 percent chance of a U.S. recession in 2016. With the weakest economic expansion following a recession, this will be a serious blow to the U.S. The outlook isn’t just bleak for the U.S. but also for the rest of the world.
Although the U.S. economy will contract, the outlook suggests that domestic consumption, housing investment and business investment will be the biggest drivers of growth for the national economy.
Economists at Citi are still forecasting the very first Federal Reserve rate hike in seven years to transpire in the first quarter of next year, followed by three more between the third quarter of 2016 and the first quarter of 2017. This means the Fed Funds rate would reach 1.25 percent by the end of the first quarter of 2017.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), say all of the experts, will likely raise interest rates at its next meeting this month.
On the Eurozone:
“At the December 3 meeting, the ECB may review its monetary policy options and formally extend or expand the QE program.”
On China:
“In early November, the IMF may include CNY in its SDR basket, but we may see CNY/USD weakening either way.”
On precious metals:
“Gold lacks major drivers as US monetary and fiscal policy are well contained (policy rate hiking seen coming and deficits slashed from crisis levels) and jewelry demand in EM looks flat.”
For millions of Americans, the question that may be asked: did the 2009 recession even come to an end? With all of that debt, millions living paycheck to paycheck and steadily rising price inflation, many may not even be surprised when the U.S. officially falls back into a recession.
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