No matter what you think of former President Barack Obama’s nuclear agreement with Iran, President Donald Trump’s decision to scrap the deal is a foolish one. Not because it could backfire, but because it endangers future pacts with other nations, like North Korea.
If the U.S. can just destroy an agreement, then why would Kim Jung-un think any deal would stay intact in the future?
Representative Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) took to Twitter to make this important point, which will certainly enrage the neoconservatives and Trump supporters.
She tweeted:
Trump’s message to Iran, NK, & world: It’s ok to sign an agreement, then rip it up down the road. Kim Jong-un will say: “Why should I trust the U.S. to adhere to an agreement with North Korea when you did not adhere to the agreement with Iran, even though Iran was in compliance?”
— Tulsi Gabbard (@TulsiGabbard) May 8, 2018
Why should any ally or adversary believe anything the US says? Why should they trust we will keep our word? Trump has completely undermined the opportunity to prevent conflicts & war through negotiation and agreement, by ripping up the agreement the US made with Iran & allies
— Tulsi Gabbard (@TulsiGabbard) May 8, 2018
Trump proudly said: “When I make promises, I keep them.” But what about the US, who he supposedly represents? The United States made a promise in that agreement with Iran, UK, France, Germany, Russia, and China. Trump has now broken that promise, undermining U.S. credibility.
— Tulsi Gabbard (@TulsiGabbard) May 8, 2018
As always when it comes to foreign policy, Gabbard is exactly right on this.
Moreover, the premise of Trump’s decision is that Iran violated the terms of the agreement. How does he know this? Proof from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu? Didn’t he say Iraq had weapons of mass destruction?
They lied to you about Iraq and Libya. Why would they tell you the truth about Iran?
Does it all seem odd that all this occurs after Trump pushes the Saudis to take a larger role in their own defense as we sell them billions in weapons, the chemical attack after Trump says we will pull out of Syria, the new found friendship between the Saudis and Israel and the report that Iran is cheating? All this in 2 months. I am not even arguing about Iran’s compliance or that they are anything but a tyrannical regime but I will question our involvement. If the Israelis and Saudis are so concerned with what their Shiite neighbors are doing then why don’t they act? Why must we fight the Sunnis and Israelis battles? This is rapidly ratcheting up and we are being primed for another petrodollar war. Deja moo. I heard this bull before.
The only communist countries remaining today are North Korea and Cuba, and Cuba is starting to move away from a pure communist economy. During the cold war the ultimate achievement that the United States Central Intelligence Agency or its’ Soviet KGB counterpart could have wished for would be to install one of their agents or assets as the leader of the other superpower. Such a coup could possibly have led to one superpower adopting the economic system of its rival. Now Putin and Russia have no interest in causing the first world countries change from free market capitalism to communism or anything else.
If Putin has no interest in spreading an economic system in the way that Stalin and Khrushchev did, what would be his motive in having a friend in the White House? I also do not think Putin and Russia have much interest in conquering any significant new territory. After the debacle in Afghanistan, Russia has no stomach for occupying territory where the population does not speak Russian and could involve fighting insurgents supported by outside interests. Russia has no interest in trying to subdue the populations of Poland or Lithuania even if Trump and/or NATO were willing to look the other way. Russia has already achieved most or all of the re-absorption of Russian speaking areas such as Crimea as it probably wishes.
The question then becomes what did Putin hope to gain by aiding Trump? For argument sake, assume that Trump had agreed to do Putin’s bidding. What Russia and Putin desperately needs is money. Even if Putin asked Trump to have the American Treasury transfer, say $200 billion to Russia, that is not going to happen. Even Kellyanne Conway could not spin that one into anything would be acceptable to the American people or congress. Absent writing Russia a big check, how could Trump cause Russia to gain $200 billion? The answer would be a $50 increase in the price of oil.
We know what has caused most of the oil price spikes in the last 50 years. That has been wars in the Middle East. The first oil shocks came with the 1967 and 1973 wars. Twenty percent of oil traded worldwide moves by tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important petroleum transit choke point. Iran also provides various pathways that could lead to another oil price spike. I will leave it to others to elaborate on all of the possible actions that President Trump could take that could stoke instability and lead to conflict in that volatile region. There are also some who fear that even if Trump was in absolutely no way compromised or beholden to Russia, he could still stoke a war in that region anyway with some blunder or rash action…”
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4034048