Probability of a U.S. recession in next 12 months? 24.6%

There is a lot of recession talk on The Street lately. It was only a matter of time because this bull run cannot last forever, despite the White House predicting good times for another decade.

So, is there really a chance of a recession hitting the United States? If so, then when?

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY), using the Treasury spread 12 months ahead, there is a 24.6 percent chance of an economic contraction by February 2020.

Here is the chart:

Is a recession nigh? Whatever happens, you’ll know President Donald Trump will get the blame, which makes sense, considering how he took credit for the soaring stock market.