Cleveland Fed Bank’s Nowcast forecasting 8.1% inflation tomorrow

On the eve of CPI Day, the market is anticipating a headline print of eight percent for October.

If accurate, it would be a notable drop from the 8.2 percent in the September report.

But not everyone is expecting the eight percent figure.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s Nowcast is projecting an October reading of 8.1 percent.

The core consumer price index (CPI), which eliminates the volatile food and energy sectors, is expected to climb to 6.6 percent.

On a month-over-month basis, the Nowcast expects a 0.8 percent boost.

It should be noted that the Cleveland Fed Bank has underestimated inflation for 16 of the last 19 months.

Ultimately, the discussion is no longer peak inflation, but rather how slow it will take to bring the CPI down to the Federal Reserve’s two percent target.