Has the recession been canceled?
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta released an update to its first-quarter GDPNow model, and it was raised to 2.2 percent, up from 0.7 percent just a week ago.
“The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2023 is 2.2 percent on February 8, up from 2.1 percent on February 7. After this morning’s wholesale trade release from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter gross private domestic investment growth increased from -6.2 percent to -5.6 percent,” the regional central bank stated.
Here is what the estimate suggests so far:
Impressive!
It should be noted that the running model, which has been accurate and off by +/- a few percentage points, was off by about 1% in the last quarter.
Leave a Comment