The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits climbed to 211,000 in the week ending March 4, up from 190,000. This was also higher than market estimates of 195,000.
Does this mean the Federal Reserve’s tightening is working and finally slowing down the labor market?
Not quite.
In fact, market experts say not to buy into the numbers because of one city: New York.
Wait! Jobless claims are a head fake. When NY schools go on break, school workers can file for benefits. Guess what happened last week? NY claims rose by 16,000 over the prior week. A nice “Fed tightening is starting to work” narrative unravels…
(h/t Stephen Stanley, Santander) pic.twitter.com/dP4OgLwVnf— Michael McKee (@mckonomy) March 9, 2023
This comes ahead of tomorrow’s February jobs report.
Economists are expecting more than 206,000 new jobs in the non-farm payroll (NFP) report. So, you know what this means: 400,000 new positions!
In the meantime, U.S.-based employers announced more than 77,000 layoffs in January, job openings were still above 10 million to kick off the year, and the ADP reported that the private sector added 242,000 jobs last month.
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