It is safe to say that the June non-farm payrolls report is going to be, as the kids say, lit.
Why?
A few employment reports were released on Thursday and they were astounding.
The first was the ADP National Employment Report. It highlighted that the U.S. private sector created 497,000 new jobs in June, up from 267,000 in May, and higher than economists’ expectations of 228,000 positions.
The second was the Challenger job cuts data. This report confirmed that there were only 40,709 layoffs last month, down from 80,000 in May. This was far below the market forecast of 103,000.
The only downbeat news on Thursday was that initial jobless claims continued to trend higher, coming in at 248,000 for the week ending July 1. This also topped the market projection of 245,000.
Still, tomorrow’s jobs report will be fascinating for a few things:
- Will it be much higher than the 225,000 estimate? Most definitely.
- How many people are working two or more jobs? Probably above nine million again.
- Where is the job growth concentrated? Probably leisure and hospitality.
High inflation, a five percent interest rate environment, a slowing economy, and banking stress. And yet, the U.S. economy is still adding 400,000 new jobs.
A remarkable turn of events, considering that many economists and market strategists had anticipated zero job growth by this time of the year.
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