Durable goods orders crashed — and crashed hard in October.
Yet, the top GDP forecast revised its fourth-quarter estimate higher.
In October, according to the Census Bureau, durable goods orders plummeted 5.4 percent, down from the downwardly revised 4 percent in September. This was worse than the market estimate of -3.1 percent.
For whatever reason, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow Model estimate was adjusted higher to 2.1 percent, up from the previous estimate of 2 percent.
How did this happen?
From the regional central bank:
“The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.1 percent on November 22, up from 2.0 percent on November 17. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from -1.8 percent to -1.1 percent.”
Still does not make sense.
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