Is the U.S. economy headed for a recession?
It looks like the Federal Reserve’s tightening efforts are beginning to take effect in the United States
Durable goods orders are tanking, factory orders plummeted, retail trade is slowing, and job creation is easing.
As a result, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow Model estimate has been slashed to 1.2 percent, from a high of 2.2 percent.
“The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 1.2 percent on December 1, down from 1.8 percent on November 30. After this morning’s construction spending release from the US Census Bureau and the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.7 percent and -2.7 percent, respectively, to 1.8 percent and -3.2 percent.”
Here is the chart:
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