How is the state of the U.S. money supply? The data continue to show that it is contracting. In fact, it has been on a downward trend since hitting a peak in February 2021. For the second consecutive month, the M2 money supply contracted by 1.8 percent in January, down from -1.05 percent. Here is […]
Inflation
Peak inflation or disinflation? Cleveland Fed Nowcast points to elevated inflation
The latest narrative on Wall Street is that inflation might not have peaked yet. Or, at the very least, the disinflation trend may be put on ice for the time being. With a couple of weeks until the much-anticipated February consumer price index (CPI) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, there is a look […]
Reminder: U.S. government officially changes how the CPI is calculated
Before the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases the official consumer price index (CPI) report for January, this is your reminder that the federal agency altered how it measures inflation. Here is what the BLS previously announced: “Starting with January 2023 data, the BLS plans to update weights annually for the Consumer Price Index based […]
University of Michigan: Consumer sentiment jumps, inflation expectations surge
The monthly University of Michigan consumer report was mixed in February. First, on the sentiment side, UMich’s Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) climbed to 66.4 this month, up from 64.9 in January. This also topped market estimates of 65. The Consumer Expectations Index fell to 62.3, while the Current Conditions Index increased to 72.6. Second, here […]
Inflation-adjusted Employment Cost Index (ECI) shows negative wage growth again
The Federal Reserve says that labor data will play a key role in its decision to raise interest rates or hit the pause button. Many economists have been concentrating on the latest Employment Cost Index (ECI). The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the ECI rose 1% in the fourth quarter, down from 1.2% […]