The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow Model estimate for the first quarter was trimmed to 1.7 percent, down from the previous estimate of 2.5 percent.
From the regional central bank:
“The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2023 is 1.7 percent on April 3, down from 2.5 percent on March 31. After this morning’s construction spending release from the US Census Bureau and the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, decreases in the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 4.6 percent and -7.3 percent, respectively, to 3.7 percent and -8.5 percent were slightly offset by an increase in the nowcast of first-quarter real government spending growth from 1.7 percent to 2.1 percent.”
It has been a brutal week for U.S. economic data.
As of April 4, this is what has been reported:
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 49.2 in March
- ISM Manufacturing PMI: 46.3 in March
- Construction spending: -0.1 percent in February
- LMI Logistics Managers Index: 51.1 in March
- Factory Orders: -0.7 percent in February
- Job Openings: 9.931 million (first time below ten million in nearly two years) in February
- Job Quits: 4.024 million
- IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index: 47.4 in April
Is a recession nigh?
Perhaps the answer might rest in next month’s data when the aftermath of the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank failures is felt.
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